This is the Agile framework analysis I did for thrive market for growing their product sales to understand how the media spend allocation work with the hot gluten free products.

Goals:

•Understand impact of media investments on sales with inclusion of gluten free products

•Optimize budget allocation across channels

•Recommend high-ROI strategies for category and total sales growth

Methodology of a system with MMM+Attribution

Step 1: Marketing Mix Modeling (MMM) with adstock

1.Email is the Most Predictable Sales Driver

  • SHAP shows consistent and strong positive impact.

  • Email is the most efficient and reliable channel for driving gluten-free product sales.

Recommendation: Prioritize investment in segmented, personalized email campaigns timed with new gluten-free product drops.

2. Paid Social Has High Potential, but Variable Return

  • SHAP values show wider spread, indicating performance depends heavily on targeting and creative.

Recommendation: Focus on retargeting warm audiences and promoting influencer or lifestyle content relevant to gluten-free consumers.

3. Display Spend Delivers Low and Inconsistent Impact

  • SHAP values cluster close to zero with minimal effect on sales.

Recommendation: Limit display to retargeting use cases or broader awareness—not direct conversion.

Step 2: Attribution using machine learning (XGBoost + SHAP)

1. Instagram Outperforms Facebook in Paid Social Attribution

  • Instagram has higher and tighter SHAP values, indicating better sales efficiency.

Recommendation: Allocate more paid social budget to Instagram, focusing on reels, stories, and visual-rich gluten-free content.

2. Google Search Delivers the Highest Paid Search ROI

  • Google dominates in SHAP importance over Bing, driving more consistent conversion.

Recommendation: Scale spend on gluten-free product and category-specific keywords in Google Ads.

3. Klaviyo Leads in Email Performance

  • Klaviyo exhibits stronger SHAP impact than Mailchimp, likely due to better segmentation and automation.

Recommendation: Shift email strategy to Klaviyo for lifecycle flows, product recommendations, and behavior-driven messages.

Step 3: Scenario simulations to test spend and assortment changes

Insights

  • Expanding gluten-free product offerings yields the highest projected weekly sales, outperforming any single media investment.

  • Email marketing shows the strongest sales elasticity, making it the most efficient paid channel for driving revenue.

  • Paid social and paid search provide meaningful incremental lift when strategically targeted around gluten-free demand.

Executions

  • Launch 15–25 new gluten-free SKUs and highlight them across the site with “New” and “Gluten-Free” labels.

  • Increase Klaviyo-driven email campaigns with gluten-free bundles, promotions, and behavior-triggered flows.

  • Run Google and Instagram campaigns focused on gluten-free keywords and audience retargeting with personalized ads.